Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has has important lessons to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
